100 Minus Rule, Tech Secrecy, And More

5 insightful ideas in 5 minutes

Hello there,

I hope you enjoyed last week’s meditation on the idea of optimal deprivation.

It’s the first Sunday of the month, and we’re back with another roundup where we explore 5 thought-provoking ideas in 5 minutes. I also did a similar five-idea-piece on psychology last month, and you may want to check it out ASAP.

I can sense that people are eager to get down to business, so without any more of that ghastly small talk, let’s dive right in:

1. Dishonest Signals: Evolutionary biology is an endlessly fascinating subject. A really cool idea that I learned recently in this space (more specifically, from signaling theory) is Batesian mimicry. It’s an evolutionary strategy in which animals (e.g.- frogs) evolve to look like they’re poisonous (by developing features like spots or marks that are typical of poisonous reptiles) in order to deceive predators into thinking that they shouldn’t be eaten. What a fantastic example of deception in nature. Signals are very useful for converting a certain message, but dishonest actors can also exploit them via mimicry. Something similar seems to have happened to the Twitter blue tick- something that earlier used to be a mark of authenticity has now turned into a useless signal because all sorts of random people (including trollers and hate-speech fanatics) can simply pay a monthly subscription to “buy” such a valuable signal.
   
   

2. AI Null Hypothesis: In a world where everyone’s baiting you into thinking that AI will roast everyone alive by EOD, here’s an entirely orthogonal take. Newport suggests we shouldn’t get our panties in a bunch because of some scary thought experiments or dystopian predictions that make for tremendous YT Shorts material. We must filter for tangible impacts because let’s face it- we all suck at predicting the long-term impacts of new technology. When companies experience major shifts based on these advancements- like firing 40% of the staff, or a company cracking billion-dollar revenues by selling an AI tool- that’s a genuine impact that you can use to update your position on AI. Not speculative “this stuff could happen” or “that tool might beat up my grandma”. So start by assuming the null hypothesis- that none of these crazy-sounding prophecies are really going to happen, and then update your views based only on concrete, tangible facts.
   

3. Indian Tailwinds: Ruchir Sharma, as always, brings the heat. The discussion at this summit was on how all macro factors are looking good for the Indian economy. On being asked for leading indicators, Sharma said that more than foreign capital, it’s usually the actions of the domestic businessmen that one should watch closely. When they’re bullish on the economy, it’s a great sign. Foreign investors are usually the last ones to enter the party and seem to invest only when an uptrend is already on its way. Conversely, the domestic folks are the first ones to leave when things are about to get nasty- so if one spots this trend, it signals a troubling trend. Since these businesses are the key to rapid growth, an important thing to prevent is the weaponization of investigative agencies that aggressively go after these businesses and cause immense disruption. Overdo it, and you’re sure to trigger an exodus of these entrepreneurs from the country.

   
   

4. The 100 Minus Rule: If you find reading difficult because you can’t recover from the PTSD you got thanks to some boring-ass book, here’s a nice rule: the 100 minus principle: if a book doesn’t interest you by page number (100- <Your Age>), just drop it without a speck of regret- as Ashish Nehra did with all those easy catches. So if you’re 30, drop a book that doesn’t manage to get you hooked by page 70. Life’s too short to waste on books that don’t tingle the senses like a raunchy C-grade film. As you get older, your tolerance for crappy books should reduce. Dropping can be liberating, and it can finally get you closer to stuff that interests you and makes you fall in love with reading: a joy that shall last forever.

   

   You don’t need to read ‘em all

   
   
   

5. Tech Secrecy: History suggests that no power is able to hold on to its tech and trade secrets for too long. This is especially relevant in the context of the intense chip war that’s raging between the US and China. The Chinese invented sericulture, tea, and porcelain but couldn’t protect them for long- military, economic, and geopolitical considerations (the need for Central Asian horses in their military, for instance) meant that the Chinese had to trade these technologies to import critical stuff. Similarly, it’s hard for the US to hold on to its lead in the semiconductor space- and advances being made in China make it look like the US may not hold this tech advantage for too long.

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That’s it for today, ladies and gents. If you found these insights valuable, be sure to check out the ideas from previous versions. They’re timeless:

• My very first roundup of ideas

• Bharatiya civilization, Dominos vs. Pizza Hut, And More

• Bitcoin, First Principles, And More