The Coming Population Collapse
10 fascinating points on the whats and whys of this issue
Hello readers,
Welcome to the hundreds of curious people who have joined the community this year with the intention of learning new stuff all the time! I hope you enjoyed last week’s note on my observations from the land of massages & marijuana and beaches & business trips- the beautiful country called Thailand.
This week, we’re going to talk about a significant change happening all around us that we’re just not paying enough attention to, just like our receding hairlines and expanding waistlines.
It’s about the coming demographic collapse. The world’s population is projected to peak soon, after which it might see a precipitous drop.
Most countries, especially rich, industrialized nations, are facing a deadly fertility crisis. You might be tempted to think that this is a great thing- that the world has enough assholes anyway, and that we’d be much better off with lesser people walking on the face of the Earth with their index fingers up their noses.
It’s not that simple. A falling population is something we’re not prepared for, and before letting our inner economist call it a fantastic thing, we need to think through the second-order consequences and measures we’ll have to take.
As we speak, the fertility rate of many countries has fallen below the replacement rate (RR)- the average number of babies per woman for the population to remain exactly the same after a generation. The RR is 2.1, and even India’s FR seems to have dropped below that number. Japan (1.4), South Korea (0.9), and China (1.7!)- all are at extremely concerning levels.
This collapse is directly linked to what we- young men and women- are doing with our lives. Why aren’t we reproducing as much as before? Is it that women don’t want to have kids? Or are the men rather shy about the prospects of having 2 education loans and therefore giving the kiddos a miss? Or wait, are we expecting the sun and the moon from our partners when, in reality, the only choice in the dating market is a loser with a paunch?
I spent some time listening to a few experts on this issue, and here are some interesting points that I’ve learned. It’s an issue we can’t afford to ignore, so I’d urge you to take 5 minutes out and read the entire thing:
Apparent reasons: Look, here’s the thing: directly asking people why they’re not having kids produces a variety of answers, but they’re often not very convincing. A common refrain is that people are retreating to their inner citadels- doubling down on their careers, hobbies they love, or plain simple f**kboy partying. People say they don’t want to give up on those things and hence don’t want kids. But researchers believe that these are often ‘cope’ reasons and often hide a deeper, unfortunate reality.
Choiceless childlessness: The sad truth is that a tear-inducing 80% of those who don’t have kids actually wanted to but couldn’t owing to circumstances! That was a shocking statistic. The first thing that comes to mind when we think of these issues is that people are prioritizing work, getting lazier, or just too busy watching FTV - but that’s not the case. People actually want kids. Some are born with conditions that prevent them from having kids. Some miss the bus (peak reproductive age starts in the late teens- so mid-30s definitely get too late) or are simply not able to find the right person when they want to. This is so saddening. But why does this happen? Let’s look at some reasons.
Educated women: Many women take on debt to complete higher studies. Naturally, their first priority in their mid-late 20s is to make money, establish their careers and reduce their debt. Once they’ve achieved some stability, they start looking for a mate only in their 30s- by which time things have already gotten a little tricky. If a woman doesn’t reproduce before 30, her chances of doing so have already dropped by half.
Evolutionary time bomb: Here’s a really fascinating insight from evolutionary psychology. If a relationship has been going on for 5-8 years without a child, an evolutionary bias kicks in and people fall out of love! It’s probably because they were meant to procreate but the fact they haven’t done it in so long indicates that something’s wrong. Plus there’s a better chance of procreating with someone else if the couple separates and tries their luck with some other person. This isn’t conscious reasoning, but rather a mental module that has evolved to guide our behavior. (Man, we’ll never know the crazy shit our minds make us do without us ever finding out!) But the implication is that people who’ve been dating for a long time in their 20s often split up- and then finding the right person is a long, arduous process which again causes delays and dents the chances of reproducing in time.
Tall girl problem: A really interesting finding is that women with successful careers are even more likely to want partners who’re MORE successful than them- which further narrows the pool of men available to them (more so, considering they’d have reached their late-20s or early 30s in getting successful themselves). This is the tall girl problem- when you are 6’1, you can only date NBA athletes- a vanishingly small choice pool! And doesn’t take a Maxwell to figure out that the harder it is to find a mate, the lower the chances of successfully starting a family. You can now start seeing why the odds are so badly stacked against couples in advanced, industrialized economies.
The Lamp: There’s a great story to describe the issue of marrying late. An old lady would go out every day to buy a lamp with her grandkid. They’d repeat the ritual day after day only to come back without any success. The kid asked her why they’d go lamp-finding every single day. The old lady said, “I can’t find the perfect lamp, it has to match all the other items in the house”. It’s a great analogy. As people get older, more and more aspects of their lives get fixed- where they live, what they want from their lives, etc. When you start applying one filter after another, your options disappear faster than your professionalism in your notice period. Finding the dream partner, thus, becomes rather impossible. That’s why marrying early is an advantage- you can build a lot of aspects of your life together (rather than being fixated on things and looking for people who can fit in)
Financial woes: Is money also an issue? Well, it is, but wasn’t that the case a few decades ago as well? Of course it was, and we’re actually much better off than people in the 20th century. But there’s a big sociological change that the consumerist way of life has brought about. Luckily, people back in the day weren’t so focused on one-upping their Insta friends and matching their possessions and luxury trips one for one. This manufactured financial pressure is one big reason why we feel we don’t have enough money to raise kids. Think about it.
The Problem: You may be thinking “Okay, we’re allowing all the sperm to get wasted without hitting its KRAs. But what’s the big deal? Why is this even a problem?!”. Multiple points, here. One, the world’s facing a major loneliness crisis, and being alone in old age is a rather depressing idea that many people can’t stand. Moreover, as populations age, we need younger people to offer care and services to the elderly- without them even existing, who’s going to be there to do the job of doctors, nurses, helpers, policemen and so many other essential roles that we take for granted? The reason those essential things are taken care of is that we have young people around to do that work. When that number drops drastically and you’re left with a population of frail, old people, it’s a veritable disaster!
Rethinking the education system: To ease off these detrimental factors (trying too late because of financial burdens, career establishment, etc), an innovative idea is to re-think our education system. Admit it, most of us haven’t used any of the crap we mugged up at college. Besides producing a fake degree certificate, most of those years have been one gigantic exercise in heavy internet downloading and killing time in the most brutal ways possible. So why stick to that useless regime? We can delete a few years and let people start their careers much earlier so financial burdens don’t become a deterrent to starting a family.
What countries are doing: Despite being such a big international issue, this barely gets talked about because it’s distant and not affecting our daily lives- pretty much like climate change a few years ago. But it’s not like everyone’s napping while the demographic bomb continues ticking. Countries staring at a serious collapse are trying to find ways out of this. In Japan, this issue makes the headlines every day and concerted efforts are being made to at least attempt to stabilize the population. If Japan fails though, it’s going to be a major issue for many others. It’s like the canary in the coal mine, so let’s hope the Nipponese pull a rabbit out of the hat.
We’re up against a big problem, but there are places like Africa that seem to offer a ray of hope. The onus is on policy-makers to start thinking things through and figure out smart solutions so nations don’t witness a dramatic reversal of fortunes.
That’s it for today, friends. Share this piece with a friend and debate it. Everyone’s had long, heated discussions about whether we need more kids- and this should give some much-needed perspective.
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