23 Ideas from 2023 (Part 1)
Deep insights from business, geopolitics, money and more
Hello readers,
It’s that time of the year when we look back and reflect on how pathetic things have been. But forget all that for a second.
Instead, let’s blow our minds with some thought-provoking ideas from 2023. You can read the lists from 2022 (Part 1 and Part 2)- trust me, they’re going to be worth your time.
Each idea can be explored in depth by clicking on the title link for the full articles/sources.
Here we go:
Pleasure at being the cause: In 1901, psychologist Karl Groos observed that kids experienced immense delight when they took actions that had a visible effect- like pushing a toy and watching it move. He called this phenomenon ‘pleasure at being the cause’. It might sound simple, but it has a deep underlying insight: we derive great pleasure from our ability to affect the world, and our existence is grounded in our ability to take such actions. Denied this, we suffer miserably. That’s why we hate meaningless jobs.
Thucydides’ Trap: Every time an incumbent faces a rising power that threatens to displace it, it instills a deep fear in the ruling power. Moreover, echoes of an impending “decline” further stoke its paranoia, and it views every act of its opponent through a deeply suspicious lens, which further prepares the ground for the outbreak of war. This often leads ruling powers to war with rising ones- a dynamic that’s called the Thucydides’ Trap. The ancient historian Thucydides summed it up thus: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. We’re perhaps seeing something similar in US-China relations today.
The Threat Of Fake Humans: In the age of AI, one of our biggest threats is the proliferation of fake humans. We make so many of our choices & decisions based on what other humans are saying and promoting on digital media. But what if you took decisions based on an influencer who isn’t real, but is a bot owned by a corporation? Or a bot run by a terrorist org to spread their ideology? In a world of machines, proof of human identity will become paramount.
Optimal Deprivation: In a world that pushes you to do more, do less. High satisfaction levels can be achieved via optimal deprivation- punctuating all pleasurable activities with extended periods of deprivation. Adopting this fasting mindset can decondition our addicted brains and allow us to find joy without craving for ever-increasing dopamine hits. Meditation (fasting for the mind), digital minimalism (fasting for the brain), and actual fasting (for the body) are some ideas to incorporate into one’s life. The road to contentment passes through deprivation.
Unified Growth Theory: How did humanity prosper and go from centuries of almost no growth to an explosion in the last few centuries? UGT suggests that the wheels of change were churning for a long time until they reached the tipping point with the Industrial Revolution. For thousands of years, the human population had been rising, which led to increasing diversity, which led to many Aryabhattas and Einsteins, which led to big tech advances that kept feeding our population growth…until we reached the inflection point that changed humanity’s fate.
Black Box Thinking: Every flight has a black box that records all the audio communications that happened between the pilot, co-pilot, and the aviation authorities. This is an extremely important data set that is analyzed in detail every time there’s a plane crash to figure out what went wrong so that those errors can be amended. Since these mistakes can result in the tragic loss of human life, the industry’s model of using failure as a learning experience is inspiring, and the learnings that come out of every episode are passed on to the entire industry.
Credit Theory of Money: Money isn’t just physical, like a rupee note or a coin. It’s a social technology that can be better understood as a system of credits and debts (who owes whom how much), with a universal economic unit of value (currency) that can be used to settle these debts in a decentralized manner (clearing mechanism). Money is, therefore, transferable credit.
Clash of civilizations: Instead of political or ideological lines, nation-states will align themselves along civilizational lines. In a period of rapid economic and technological change, people cling to their identities, and this will result in countries banding together with people they can relate to. This will result in major blocs like the West, Sinic, Hindu, Islamic, and African civilizations, and conflicts in the future will be among these groups.
The Luxury Litmus Test: A luxury brand espouses 3 core ideas: an obsession with quality & craftsmanship, exclusivity & scarcity, and the ability to evoke a certain status. The best luxury brands, like Rolex, have spent over a century cultivating these values, to the point where they purposely keep production slow so that the scarcity raises the perceived value of their products. The brand has managed to invert the market dynamic by making the customer pitch to the brand and justify why they are worthy of buying one, rather than the brand running behind customers and catering to their every whim like offering discounts and customizations. That, more than anything, is the ultimate litmus test for anybody selling luxury.
Population collapse: As countries get richer, they experience a decline in fertility. This process has been playing out in wealthy nations for decades which might soon lead to a demographic collapse. This is concerning for many reasons. It’s like a constant recession because there are fewer people to produce and consume stuff. Moreover, an aging population requires workers, nurses, and young staff members who will be increasingly difficult to locate in a world where the youth is slowly disappearing. Ultimately, humanity progresses when inventive geniuses come up with new ideas & tools (as mentioned in Idea #5 above)- the chances of which keep going down as our numbers and pop diversity keep falling.
The Billionaire Mindset Test: What would you do if you suddenly got a billion dollars? The answer to this question can speak volumes about whether you’re the type who can become a billionaire. Most of us would talk about what we’d buy, where we’d donate, etc. But not the one with a billionaire mindset- that person would immediately try to figure out how she’ll make another billion. This is what separates them from the rest- the pursuit of wealth as an end in itself, and not because it serves some purpose. This occurs not just due to greed but also an obsession with horizontal inequality- comparing yourself not to the remaining 99.9999% of the world, but to the other billionaires in the city who have a bigger yacht than you!
That’s it for today, folks. Part 2 of this list will hit your inbox soon. If you enjoyed this, consider reading: