Hello there,
It’s been over 2 years since the Russia-Ukraine war began as we all watched like dumb witnesses.
Everyone loves finding someone to blame in these situations. Putting stupid oversimplifications aside, how did this all begin?
Turns out, the roots of this conflict go back to the post-Cold War era and the issue is more complex than my Facebook relationship status in 2013.
So today, we’ll go back in time and look at how it all started, rather than some proximate or recent causes that merely lit up the fire- because the sparks have been around for decades.
It all started in 1991.
In 91, the Cold War finally came to an end. The Soviet Union was broken up into many countries and everyone in the West was celebrating the victory of democracy, calling it the “end of history”, partying till 6 AM while puking every couple of hours, etc. But not all was well because Russia had a very different view of the situation.
The Soviet break-up led to Ukraine becoming an independent state, having aspirations of being a sovereign state instead of being under their master’s thumb. But Russia, the successor to the Soviet Union, had different ideas- both concerning Ukraine and the global order.
The separation of Ukraine felt like a profound loss to everyone in Russia. Russia traces its origin to Kyiv (now the Ukrainian capital). Because Russia had many popular figures in its culture and policies who came from Ukraine and because Ukraine had always been part of the Russian and the Soviet Empire, it was one loss that they just couldn’t stomach. Psychologist Daniel Kahnemann’s idea of loss aversion was at play- and Russia wanted to maintain the status quo by continuing to influence Ukraine.
Moreover, Russia looked at the post-91 world order differently than the West. They still saw themselves as a conventional “great power” that deserved to have a veto over East European affairs and significant influence over its neighbors. This completely contradicted the West’s viewpoint, which rejected such “imperial” thinking and wanted democratic countries to live peacefully with each other. Thus, since 1991, there have been deep, fundamental differences in what Russia, Ukraine, and the West wanted.
While relations improved for a while, they were constantly worsened when the West supported revolutions across Eastern EU countries that tried toppling autocratic regimes across countries like Georgia and Serbia. The West saw this as a global advancement of their values, but Russia saw this as a major threat. Putin was deeply opposed to this and saw these Western ploys as the new technology of revolution that had to be resisted. Thus, the merger of democratization & geopolitics drove a permanent wedge between the two.
Ukraine, stuck in the middle, became the place where these deep conflicts eventually played out. Ukraine underwent a revolution in 2004 and seemed to move towards democracy, but it was always dominated by a bunch of corrupt oligarchs who made great money off the energy trade with Russia. They were, thus, one of the factors that kept Ukraine dependent on Russia, even as the country wanted to integrate with the EU.
In 2014, Ukraine came very close to accepting EU membership but backed out because Putin threatened to cripple them economically. Frustrated, Ukrainian citizens kept protesting and ultimately toppled the Russia-friendly autocrat from the government. Fearing Western intervention, Putin took advantage of the opportunity and invaded Ukraine in 2014 (but we were too busy scrolling through confession pages on Facebook to notice this event).
Ultimately, Ukraine’s deepening ties with NATO and EU have always felt deeply threatening to Russia, which has taken actions that, in turn, felt threatening to the West. This is called the security dilemma- where just doing things to increase your security feels damn scary to the other party, who starts doing the same, which feels scary to you so you also start…….you get the vibe.
In conclusion, the deeply conflicting worldviews that Russia and the West had after the Cold War continued to exist. Combined with the security dilemma & the merger of democratization and geopolitics, this led to a worsening situation, an arms build by Russia a few years ago, and ultimately the war in 2022.
As long as the 2 parties have completely different worldviews and aren’t ready to grant concessions, the possibility of a resolution remains bleak.
Thanks for tuning in! If you liked this, do read: